At 192 as of 13 August - barring a sudden spike in the second half of the summer I think the current progression will hold
0.066871
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
40%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
35%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
25%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Forecast is very speculative admittedly
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The awareness of the threat of mirror life is not something that has entered collective consciousness for now but 5 years is a rather long time and I think things may move quickly in the coming years with greater publicity and awareness.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not sure of the processes required for a particular topic to be addressed in resolutions, working papers, etc. and thus there may be obstacles to tabling the issue for debate / scrutiny (sort of like how there is a queue for parliamentary questions).
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This doesn't seem to be much of a focus for the Trump administration at present and has also not featured much if at all in the news cycle
Why might you be wrong?
There's always a chance!