Following the steady decline in polls would put him below 45%.
-0.006967
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
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Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A dramatic world event or financial success that he's able to respond to quickly and positively might bring him up above 45%
Files
Why do you think you're right?
slightly higher than this same month last year due to the impact of tariffs starting to set in.
Why might you be wrong?
There is a pattern of declining inflation since Trump took office, tariff impact could be overestimated