Remote chances of lasting breakthrough peace or major escalation.
-0.001615
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
10%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
45%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
40%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have overweighted 50-59 and 60-69. There's a chance that I'm correct but the MSR wants to keep the heat on this issue so it overstates the actual threat.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Less than or equal to 70
35%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
28%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
15%
Between 79 and 82, inclusive
7%
More than or equal to 83
Why do you think you're right?
I am predicting current levels of progress roughly continue.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Diminishing returns on progress, index is recalibrated, or breakout progress would make me wrong.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
0%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
0%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
80%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
20%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
It's already late August and a lot of data indicate this will be the range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I did limited research.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I'm assuming progress continues roughly apace.
Why might you be wrong?
Breakthrough progress or a recalibration of scoring.