Ana-Santana

@1earphone  Recent data shows a continued decline in Russian natural gas exports to Europe, with quarterly volumes falling steadily due to the shutdown of pipeline flows through Ukraine in January 2025, reduced reliance on Russian energy under the REPowerEU plan, and an increasing share of EU gas coming from LNG and non-Russian suppliers.

The chart indicates that Russian gas imports in Q3 2025 are around 14–15 billion cubic meters. For the criterion to resolve “Yes,” total imports in Q3 + Q4 2025 must reach at least 19 billion cubic meters. This would require a significant rebound in Q4 2025—despite clear structural, political, and logistical trends pushing imports downward.

@4cast4life  Europe is under growing pressure to compensate for the potential reduction of U.S. military support to Ukraine.

Several European countries, such as Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom, already operate M270 systems or have invested in producing HIMARS-compatible ammunition. In addition, the EU has announced plans to boost ammunition production and proposed a €40 billion fund for military assistance to Ukraine.

There is also active interest in alternative systems like South Korea’s K239 Chunmoo (already procured by Poland) and Israel’s PULS (being evaluated by Germany and the Netherlands).

Given the current political and military dynamics, it seems likely that at least one European government will formally commit before the end of 2025 to providing Ukraine with one of these rocket artillery systems.

@aQxjdIBdOKqjPSsiwzQMFrDB The biotech sector remains one of the strongest areas for early-stage investment in Europe, with continued demand for innovation in drug discovery, gene therapy, and AI-driven biotechnology. Despite some macroeconomic uncertainty, investor appetite for health tech and biotech remains high due to long-term growth prospects and pandemic preparedness goals.

2024’s total of roughly $380 million in seed rounds demonstrates a resilient funding base, and the 2025 figures—though lower so far—suggest room for acceleration as venture markets stabilize and new EU-level funding programs (such as Horizon Europe and the European Innovation Council) continue to support biotech startups.

Given these factors, I expect seed funding in 2025–2026 to either match or exceed 2024 levels as the investment climate improves.

@Ana-Santana Both the U.S. and the UK are moving toward stronger AI governance, with clear interest in linking cybersecurity practices to financial incentives. The UK’s Code of Practice for AI cybersecurity and its roadmap for third-party assurance suggest a growing infrastructure for independent audits. In the U.S., bipartisan interest in cybersecurity tax credits shows political appetite for using tax incentives to promote security.

Given this momentum and international coordination on AI safety standards, it is plausible that at least one of these governments will formalize a law tying tax incentives to independent AI security audits before 2029

There are signs of partial progress in negotiations, such as Ukraine’s support for a 30-day proposal, even if Russia has not yet agreed. International pressure (from the U.S., EU, and Saudi Arabia) combined with military and economic exhaustion increases the likelihood of a bilateral ceasefire later in 2025. Historical precedents show that ceasefires in protracted conflicts often occur after several years of high costs on both sides.

I believe there is a relatively high probability of a new multilateral security agreement because several MENA countries are currently facing common security threats such as terrorism, regional instability, and maritime security challenges. There is also increasing international pressure, especially from the U.S. and European Union, to encourage regional cooperation. Historical precedents, such as the Abraham Accords and the Arab League/Syria reinstatement, show that when common interests align, agreements can materialize relatively quickly.