Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 20% | -10% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 80% | +10% | +2% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 03:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Dec 04, 2025 03:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 2% | 8% | -6% | +0% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 8% | 11% | -3% | -1% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 28% | 73% | -45% | -1% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 50% | 6% | +44% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 12% | 1% | +11% | +0% |
Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 03:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Dec 04, 2025 03:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 21% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 70% | 79% | -9% | +0% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Dec 04, 2025 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 89% | -19% | +14% |
| No | 30% | 11% | +19% | -14% |