Forecasted Questions
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -3% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +3% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 1% | +12% | +0% |
| No | 87% | 99% | -12% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 15% | +70% | -25% |
| No | 15% | 85% | -70% | +25% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 | Feb 17, 2026 | 6% | +75% | +2% |
| No | 20% | Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 | Feb 17, 2026 | 95% | -75% | -2% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 54% | +41% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 46% | -41% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 71% | 20% | +51% | +1% |
| No | 29% | 80% | -51% | -1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 17, 2025 01:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | -7% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | +7% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 17, 2025 01:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 14% | +72% | -22% |
| No | 14% | 86% | -72% | +22% |