forcaster4583

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Forecasted Questions

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 13% 1%
No 87% 99%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 12:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 85% 15%
No 15% 85%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 80% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 Feb 17, 2026 6%
No 20% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 Feb 17, 2026 95%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 95% 54%
No 5% 46%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 71% 20%
No 29% 80%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 3%
No 100% 97%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 01:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 86% 14%
No 14% 86%
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