RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?	0.017196
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC	Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?	-0.000024
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC	Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?	0.0
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	-0.000016
Dec 11, 2025 09:34AM UTC	Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?	0.072897

Lucas-Tang