Forecasted Questions
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 08:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 17, 2025 08:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 97% | -2% | +2% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 08:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 17, 2025 08:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 15% | +45% | +1% |
| No | 40% | 85% | -45% | -1% |
Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 08:13PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 17, 2025 08:13PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 62% | +8% | -1% |
| No | 30% | 38% | -8% | +1% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 08:17PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 17, 2025 08:17PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 83% | +7% | +1% |
| No | 10% | 17% | -7% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 08:26PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 17, 2025 08:26PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 20% | +60% | +0% |
| No | 20% | 80% | -60% | +0% |