Confirmed previous forecast
-0.001046
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 76 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 07:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 07:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2026 01:40AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
98%
(+1%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely and I did slight adjustment to align with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 12:04AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
