Confirmed previous forecast
-0.19863
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 72 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 07:06PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
70%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2026 01:47AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(+29%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
70%
(-29%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Taiwan seems to be at the center of the spat between China and Japan this month. While it is still very impossible to occur, I'd love to bring more weight against the almost zero likelihood of the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While it is still very impossible to occur, I'd love to bring more weight against the almost zero likelihood of the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 12:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 1, 2025 03:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files