extremely unlikely given the conflicting situations...
-0.000005
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 77 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
99%
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
you never know
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
1527 according to https://edition.cnn.com/health/measles-cases-us-dg
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time constraint
Files
Why might you be wrong?
nah
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Why might you be wrong?