Confirmed previous forecast
-0.009816
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 78 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 07:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2026 01:40AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
99%
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
extremely unlikely given the conflicting situations...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
you never know
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
1527 according to https://edition.cnn.com/health/measles-cases-us-dg
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files