Confirmed previous forecast
-0.202355
Relative Brier Score
28
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 33 | 29 | 141 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2025 11:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This is a super interesting question! The FDA recently published a draft guidance earlier this year titled “Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Device Software Functions: Lifecycle Management and Marketing Submission Recommendations” to support marketing submissions for AI-enabled medical devices. So it is politically plausible and technically easy to have LLM-based functionality in medical devices.
Why might you be wrong?
FDA might have many concerns and need a longer timeframe to check the technology.