Confirmed previous forecast
-0.545102
Relative Brier Score
146
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 146 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Industry
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Open RAN,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is a super interesting question! The FDA recently published a draft guidance earlier this year titled “Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Device Software Functions: Lifecycle Management and Marketing Submission Recommendations” to support marketing submissions for AI-enabled medical devices. So it is politically plausible and technically easy to have LLM-based functionality in medical devices.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
FDA might have many concerns and need a longer timeframe to check the technology.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files