Review Question
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova | 0% |
| Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia | 0% |
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova | 0% |
| No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova | 100% |
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Description
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports.
For the purposes of this question:
- “Events involving Russian security forces” refers to events directly and plausibly attributable to forces that fall under the Security Council of Russia.
- “Events resulting in 25 or more fatalities” refers to one or more events totaling 25 or more fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023. If there are events in both countries that lead to over 25 fatalities in total, but there are fewer than 25 fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023, this question will resolve as “No, neither country.”
- The fatalities must occur on the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of Georgia or Moldova. An airstrike or remote attack launched from outside these countries will count if it results in fatalities within Georgia or Moldova.
- For the purposes of this question, events in unrecognized breakaway states would be considered as occurring in the larger, internationally recognized country (e.g., an event that occurs in Transnistria would count as occurring in Moldova).
- An example of an event that would meet this criteria is the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 (Reuters, Wikipedia).
Starts
Mar 24, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closes
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Topics
Russia-Ukraine War
Geopolitical Security
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I suggest to consider joining the 3 first categories into 1 given that the question itself suggests already the evaluation will take into account any of these 2 countries. Other option is to consider what @mihaiboicu suggested initially in this thread.
What happens if different media sources disagree about the number of fatalities such that some are <25 and some are not?
Since fatalities are quite uncommon in modern warfare; I would include something related to the wounded as well.
Could you include some base rate in the background section, please. I.e. the last time 25 or more fatalities that involved Russian forces occured in those countries.
Even if we can't get a clear source to set a base rate on, perhaps a recent example that would resolve the question, and an example that would not resolve the question.
If a 25-person fatality occurs that reputable western media (Reuters, NYT, etc) indicates resulted from Russian security forces, but Russia denies it, would the question still resolve to "yes"?
Yes. The "plausibly attributable" language is meant to include scenarios like those (e.g. the "little green men" in Crimea in 2014).
Could you simplify the text to "occur in Georgia or Moldova" since its clear in the background section that this means "on or in soil, airspace, or territorial waters of"?
This is a composed question. I suggest breaking it in two independent questions. (YES/NO) E.g.:
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of Georgia before April 1, 2023?