Review Question

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Answer Initial Probability
Less than $350 million 40%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million 38%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million 15%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million 5%
More than or equal to $650 million 1%
Author
dante
Description
This question is part of the “biotech” question series exploring biotechnology capabilities related to pandemic preparedness. See similar questions on seed funding for startups in Europe and around the world, as well as an accompanying blog post for additional context.

Seed funding plays a crucial role in the biotech startup ecosystem, providing early-stage companies with the capital needed to develop innovative technologies and therapies. According to Labiotech, seed funding rounds for biotech startups have shown significant activity in recent years. In 2024, there were multiple seed funding rounds across various months, with amounts ranging from a few million to tens of millions of dollars per round (Labiotech 2024 funding tracker).  

The biotech sector continues to attract substantial investment across different funding stages, with seed rounds being particularly important for launching new ventures in areas such as drug discovery, gene therapies, and AI-enabled biotechnology platforms.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using Labiotech’s biotech funding tracker. Only investments categorized as "Seed round" under "Funding type" will be counted. You can enter "Seed round" in the search box above the table to see all of the seed funding raised for biotech startups. 

Labiotech’s annual funding trackers are available below:
U.S. startups raised $304.8 million in seed funding in 2024. As of 8 August 2025, U.S. startups raised $101.5 million in seed funding in 2025. 

Note: RFI admins will use the funding amount given in U.S. dollars wherever possible. If funding is listed in another currency without the amount in U.S. dollars, we will use the midmarket conversion rate listed on xe.com for the day the funding was announced, if known, or on the first day of the month if not.
Starts
Aug 14, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closes
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
Topics
Emerging Technology
Tags
Biotech
This question has been published for forecasting.
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Comments

ctsats
made a comment:

@dante please notice that I do not understand the purpose of "resetting" the question here in review mode after it has already been published, thus wiping out information and analysis that had already been made and costed me time and effort.

I wanted to leave a comment in the now open questions highlighting the inconsistency of information among different data sources, so I naturally came back here to re-use some of the info and analysis I had already posted, only to discover it is simply gone as if never existed. I regret to say that I am not willing to duplicate the time and effort already put here, so I will simply not bother to comment on the issue (commenting without relevant data & evidence is not my style).

Since the platform is generally open, I have been operating under the assumption that my work here will remain available and re-usable, if necessary. It now seems I got some details wrong...

In any case, our comments here, among other things, were evidence that some of us did bother to contribute; not quite sure why this should be wiped out of existence, in order to duplicate an already published question in review mode (do we actually expect anyone to review the questions now?)

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dante
made a comment:
@ctsats When questions are promoted out of the question lab and become open to forecasting, the platform treats the forecastable version as a separate question with a blank slate (in terms of comments). I've spoken to the engineering team about this, and they're looking into whether it's possible to retain those comments moving forward. You should be able to see the comments you left on the question lab version, but there is a bug that the team is working to fix. Thank you for bringing this to our attention, and we apologize for the inconvenience. 
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ctsats
made a comment:

@dante please notice that the purpose of "resetting" the question in review mode when it has been already published beats me, especially when it wipes out information and analysis that had already been posted and costed time and effort. Since the question has been now published, why exactly do we need to duplicate the published version in "review" format? 

I wanted to post a comment in one of the now open questions, pointing out the inconsistencies among different data sources, which I had briefly analyzed here with corroborating links, only to discover that the work has now disappeared. I regret to say that I will not attempt to duplicate effort that I have already put here, so I will simply not bother to comment on the subject (commenting without facts, data, and corroborating evidence is not my style)...

Since the platform is generally open, I have been posting here under the assumption that my work will not magically disappear, so I could re-use it if necessary. Seems I had some details wrong... 😒

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dante
made a comment:
@ctsats When questions are promoted out of the question lab and become open to forecasting, the platform treats the forecastable version as a separate question with a blank slate (in terms of comments). I've spoken to the engineering team about this, and they're looking into whether it's possible to retain those comments moving forward. You should be able to see the comments you left on the question lab version, but there is a bug that the team is working to fix. Thank you for bringing this to our attention, and we apologize for the inconvenience. 
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ctsats
made a comment:

In October 2024, nine seed rounds raised a total of $146 million (Labiotech, Oct 2024).

Since there is already a separate question for the global funding (where this statement is repeated verbatim), one would arguably expect that such a statement in this question is about the US only (and @PeterStamp's implicit conclusion below that we had a super-October in 2024 with $146 million applicable here is perfectly understandable, under the circumstances). But there is nothing in the linked article indicating that this number is for US companies only - on the contrary, it seems to refer to global seed funding (best case, it is definitely unclear).

And I am afraid it gets worse: looking at October in their 2024 tracker (unfolding the 'Recent biotech seed fundings' section), the sum of the reported rounds (which are 6, not 9, with the majority of companies being from Germany and the UK) is just short of ~$80 million, and in no way $146 million. The share of US companies was just $37.2 million...


For example, in August 2024, there were six seed rounds totaling $48 million (Labiotech, Aug 2024).

According to their own 2024 tracker, we had indeed 6 seed rounds in August 2024 (and as it happened, all six were for US companies), but summing up manually the seed funding amounts reported there gives $78.7 million, not $48 million...


U.S. startups raised $304.8 million in seed funding in 2024. 

I can confirm that manually adding the seed funding amounts reported in their 2024 tracker for US companies gives indeed $304.8 million.


Bottom line: their 2024 tracker seems unreliable - it is actually contradicted by their own articles of Oct 2024 and Aug 2024 (and I can only suspect that if I look at their other monthly articles I will find similar discrepancies).

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dante
made a comment:
@ctsats The articles reference Crunchbase data instead of the Labiotech tracker the question asks about. We've removed these sentences to avoid confusion. 
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ctsats
made a comment:
In any case, but especially since in the resolution page the sum is not shown explicitly, some "grounding" info should be included in the question details, i.e.

As of the question opening on August X, 2025, the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. in 2025 was $101.5 million
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dante
made a comment:
We've added this to the 2nd paragraph of the resolution criteria.
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PeterStamp
made a comment:
I´ve been struggling with the resolution site a little until I found out, that in order to get useful historical data, one needs to do as suggested: "enter "Seed round" in the search box above the table to see all of the seed funding raised for biotech startups. ".It´s NOT the usual search field at the top right of the page. From those you need to choose the ones labeled "US". Status quo for 2025 so far is 101.5.

First impression about the bins: if there is no such strong October as in 2024 ($146m !), repeating those $304.8m for the whole year looks hard. So far we would be on track for lowest bin.
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