Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Started
Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC
Closed Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC
Tags
Seasons
The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas’ attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that if Israel does not halt its airstrikes, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened” (Reuters, CNN).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reporting that Iran has launched missiles targeting Israel or conducted an airstrike in Israel. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as credible reports (including statements by either Iran or Israel) indicate that they were targeting Israel. Attacks on Israeli forces outside of Israeli territory or airspace will not be considered. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Question clarification
Issued on 11/09/23 06:02pm
Strikes within Gaza or the West Bank will not count towards resolution, regardless of whether Israel makes any territorial claims on those regions. An attack by Hamas that Iran is alleged to have supported or been involved with will not count towards resolution.
Strikes within Gaza or the West Bank will not count towards resolution, regardless of whether Israel makes any territorial claims on those regions. An attack by Hamas that Iran is alleged to have supported or been involved with will not count towards resolution.
Issued on 04/12/24 05:00pm
A drone strike conducted by Iran on Israel will count towards resolution.
A drone strike conducted by Iran on Israel will count towards resolution.
Resolution Notes
On 13 April 2024, Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones targeting Israel.
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-drone-attack-live-updates#0000018e-d986-d610-afee-f9ce06b70000
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-strikes-israeli-targets-rcna147407
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-drone-attack-israel-expected-unfold-over-hours-2024-04-13/
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 34% | |
No | 66% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 87 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 445 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|
Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC - Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC | 34% |