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Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

Started Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC

The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas’ attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that if Israel does not halt its airstrikes, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened” (Reuters, CNN).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reporting that Iran has launched missiles targeting Israel or conducted an airstrike in Israel. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as credible reports (including statements by either Iran or Israel) indicate that they were targeting Israel. Attacks on Israeli forces outside of Israeli territory or airspace will not be considered. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 11/09/23 06:02pm
Strikes within Gaza or the West Bank will not count towards resolution, regardless of whether Israel makes any territorial claims on those regions. An attack by Hamas that Iran is alleged to have supported or been involved with will not count towards resolution.
Issued on 04/12/24 05:00pm
A drone strike conducted by Iran on Israel will count towards resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 34%
No 66%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 445
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC - Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC 34%

Consensus Trend

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