Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?

Started Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC

Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group with ties to Hamas and Iran, is one of the most well-armed non-state groups in the region, with some experts estimating that their arsenal has anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 rockets (Council on Foreign Relations, Reuters, Haaretz). Since the beginning of Israel’s war with Hamas, Hezbollah has exchanged cross-border fire with Israel but has limited their attacks to targets along the border between Israel and Lebanon (Wall Street Journal).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or statements from Israeli government or military officials (e.g., the IDF’s Hamas/Israel War Updates page). 

In the event that a missile impacts within Israel but it is not clear whether it is 10 kilometers from the border with Lebanon, the INFER team will use Google Maps’ "Measure Distance” tool to determine the distance of the strike's location from the border. If the strike’s exact location is not known, but the city or neighborhood is known, the team will measure the distance between the estimated center of the city and the border with Lebanon. Missiles that are intercepted will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Resolution Notes

On 26 February 2024, Hezbollah fired 60 rockets at Israel’s Nafah military base in the Golan Heights (Times of Israel, L’Orient Today). The Nafah base is over 20 km from the border with Lebanon.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 84%
No 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 224
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC - Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC 84%

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username