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Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Started Mar 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC

This question is part of a pair of questions forecasting the probability of war between Israel and Hezbollah. Click here to forecast the probability that Israel declares war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months.

Cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified since Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 and could continue even if a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is reached (AP News). While these attacks have yet to escalate into an all-out war, Israel’s defense minister recently warned that the situation may be approaching a critical point (Reuters). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps” against Hezbollah similar to the authorization against Hamas). For reference, Israel’s cabinet declared war on Hamas on 8 October 2023 (AP News, CRS, Al Jazeera).
Resolution Notes

On 30 September 2024, Israel announced that it launched a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, aimed at Hezbollah targets and infrastructure. The RFI team has determined that this qualifies as “opening a new front” against Hezbollah, and the question has been resolved as “Yes”.

https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-troops-launched-limited-ground-incursion-targeting-hezbollah-posts-along-lebanon-border/
https://www.ft.com/content/a7da45e1-c32d-4d98-903d-214cfae842f0

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 87%
No 13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 524
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Mar 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC - Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC 87%

Consensus Trend

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