Enhancing decision making with crowdsourced forecasting
Warfighters, the intelligence community, and policy analysts across government confront complex questions that test their best analytical techniques. RFI delivers collective, diverse insights from a global community of RAND analysts and external forecasters to augment decision analysis.
Join our forecasting community and directly inform U.S. government policymaking
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FEATURED RESEARCH
Forecasting on Africa for U.S. security policy
RAND recently launched an initiative to pursue research and analysis on key under-examined security issues affecting Africa. RFI is working with the Africa Research team to elicit crowd forecasts on some of the urgent areas of policymaker concern.
Explore RFI’s public forecasting community
Engage with a diverse, global community of fellow forecasters and hone your own critical thinking and reasoning skills.
TRENDING QUESTIONS |
Forecasts in Past Week |
Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
|
61 |
25% |
|
|
Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? |
51 |
59% |
|
Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? |
42 |
9% |
|
Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? |
41 |
2% |
|
Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? |
36 |
21% |
RAND’s 2024 Forecasting Impact Overview
We're proud to share the progress that the RAND Forecasting Initiative has made in setting the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions.
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Be at the vanguard of forecasting efforts in government
“Forecasting forces me to assess my own biases going into an issue. I’m also constantly surprised by the ways the other forecasters think about factors going into their forecasts -- it is so easy to get trapped in our epistemic bubbles and crowd forecasting helps reorient our thinking.”
— Fiona Kastel, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation ("3ie")
“I learn more than I ever thought I would about some of the most important issues facing the U.S., while also influencing decisions on the same topics.”
— Anthony Cordetti, Cambridge Associates
