2 dem candidates (cuomo and mamdani) have endorsed each other and are encouraging supporters to write the other's name in 2nd choice. so i believe he will go far but he has upset many including some of his donors and other leaders in the democratic party who have remained silent regarding endorsing him. if he wins it'll be a tight race, but it's said that a poll found that most New York City Democratic primary voters have made up their minds, with only 4% still undecided. and mamdani is in the lead.
0.267116
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5
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Probability
Answer
42%
Yes
58%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
while people want change but similarly they also may want to stick with the person they know/have a record on. "the devil you know vs the one you dont."
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is a lot of topics/interest areas in the reconciliation bill including items that are going to get big cuts that are important to the masses and funding of programs that have hurdles in coming a reality in the promoted time frame.
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Why might you be wrong?
there will be considerable amount of concessions made in such a split system
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-13%)
Yes
97%
(+13%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVIDIA is trending down hours before closing with 200mil behind Microsoft.
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Why might you be wrong?
a miracle
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
Yes
84%
No
Why do you think you're right?
UPDATE: there are less than 48 hours or so left before the window closes and the margins aren't close enough based on current data
There are 8 days before the cut off including weekends and the market has dipped for all but moreso with Nvidia, percentage wise, compared to the #1 company, Microsoft. The difference in market cap is also relatively significant.
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Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because there may be surprising policies/supply chain challenges that may arise.
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Why do you think you're right?
In the one day remaining there average price is not near $3.60. The Trump Administration is also very supportive of oil and gas industry and are rolling back environmental protections including vehicle emissions standards.
Why might you be wrong?
It would be impossible for one day of data to overrule the majority of the month and gas prices would have to spike tremendously for the average to jump from 3.2 to 3.6 in such a short time frame.