Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 1% | +69% | +0% |
| No | 30% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 99% | -69% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 9% | +91% | -5% |
| No | 0% | 91% | -91% | +5% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1% | +54% | +0% |
| No | 45% | 99% | -54% | +0% |
Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 01:04AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 01:04AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 63% | -21% | -6% |
| No | 58% | 37% | +21% | +6% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 01:16AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 01:16AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 3% | +32% | +3% |
| No | 65% | 97% | -32% | -3% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93% | 82% | +11% | +7% |
| No | 7% | 18% | -11% | -7% |