Andr-s-Villafa-a

I’m pretty confident in my prediction because the trend in Europe is super clear: countries have been massively increasing their defense budgets since 2022, and most of the big systems they urgently need simply aren’t produced in Europe.

The EU has been cutting Russian gas hard since 2022. Russia used to be over 40% of EU gas imports, and now it’s down to something like 15–20%. Pipeline flows are way lower, the Ukraine transit agreement ended, and the EU keeps saying publicly they want Russian gas near zero by 2027.

Honestly, I think what I wrote is solid because it’s based on how these things usually play out in the real world. I’m not guessing I’m looking at what’s happened over the past decade. Most years, only one or two countries announce a brand-new carbon pricing system, and that’s without the kind of strict rules this question uses.

Leaders like Macron and Sunak are pushing for action, but key players (Germany, Poland) have explicitly ruled out sending troops unless there’s a ceasefire. That creates a political ceiling on what can be done in 2025. When large contributors hold back, full deployment becomes unlikely.

The U.S. has been signaling tighter control on AI technologies since at least 2022–2023. These 2025 actions are a continuation and escalation of that strategy, not a sudden shift. The Biden administration (and likely any successor) has shown strong bipartisan support for regulating advanced AI in the context of national security and tech competition with China.