CuriousCat

As of September 23, 2025, there have been a total of 1,514 confirmed* measles cases reported in the United States. Among these, 1,493 measles cases were reported by 42 jurisdictions: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, New York State, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. A total of 21 measles cases were reported among international visitors to the U.S.

There have been 40 outbreaks** reported in 2025, and 86% of confirmed cases (1,307 of 1,514) are outbreak-associated. For comparison, 16 outbreaks were reported during 2024 and 69% of cases (198 of 285) were outbreak-associated.

https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html

Very low base rate for fatal conflicts between India and China from what I can find online and it seems there are higher priorities for both countries at this time. Therefore, it is unlikely something has happened today or will happen in the remaining hours. 

 "The U.S. House version of an annual defense policy bill, passed earlier this month, includes a call for maintaining around 28,500 American troops in South Korea and reaffirming the United States' deterrence commitment to the Asian ally.

The House approved its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026 in a 231-196 vote on Sept. 10, authorizing US$893 billion in military spending. The text of the endorsed bill has recently been released on Congress' website.

The bill noted the "sense of Congress" that the U.S. defense secretary should continue efforts to strengthen alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific by maintaining the presence of around 28,500 U.S. service members, affirming the U.S.' "extended deterrence" commitment and enhancing mutual defense base cooperation.

Extended deterrence refers to the U.S.' pledge to use the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.

The policy bill has gained renewed attention in South Korea amid lingering speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could consider a troop reduction in Korea and ask its ally to take on a greater security burden.

The Senate is looking into its own NDAA version.

Before its finalization, the defense bill is set to go through a series of congressional procedures, including the process of narrowing gaps between the House and Senate, and merging their respective versions of the bill."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/house-defense-policy-bill-calls-for-maintaining-28-500-usfk-troops/ar-AA1Nyjxk?ocid=BingNewsSerp

According to other posts, there have been 731 incidents of political violence in the month of August according to ACLED data. I was not able to find this data myself on the ACLED website due to restricted access. The most I could find was the number of incidents of political violence for July 2025, which was provided in an update by ACLED on August 8. In the month there were 1,484 incidents of political violence.  Averaged over 31 days in July, is 48 per day. Also, there has been an increased number of incidents of political violence toward the end of this month, including the attack on the Nasser Hospital on Monday August 25, 2025.  Therefore, it seems most likely that there will be close to 750, or above. Given no new major incidents reported in the news, unlikely that there will be above 1000 incidents by the end of the month.

• According to the Data Breaches Digest, there have been 533 attacks this month. However, the question specifically asks the number of victims, not the number of attacks. 
• The data from August of previous years does not provide an accurate base rate, given the exponential rise in ransomware attacks due to increased use of AI for cyberattacks. https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/08/31/business/sunday-business-it/cyberattacks-rise-as-hackers-exploit-ai-apps/2176317  - Therefore, the numbers provided in the question stem are distractors and sources of bias.
• A better base rate would be looking at the number of victims over recent months. There were 535 ransomware leakage victims in July 2025, 479 victims in June 2025, 465 victims in May 2025, 525 victims in April 2025, 965 victims in March 2025, 747 in February, and 606 in January. The overall average of victims per month over the last 7 months (since Jan 2025) is 617.  Therefore, also increased chance that the number of victims in August will be greater than 550.
• Additionally, according to the Week 35 Digest, there was a large attack on Google impacting 2.5 billion individuals. It was initially detected in June, but publicly announced this week. https://mybigplunge.com/business/big-tech/google/google-confirms-massive-data-breach-by-shinyhunters-exposing-2-5-billion-users/
• The number of attacks in August thus far include: 125 in Week 31 (July 28-Aug 3), 126 in week 32 (Aug 4- Aug 10), 136 victims in Week 33 (Aug 11-Aug 17), 121 victims in Week 34 (Aug 18- Aug 24): Total 508 victims thus far (although this is an overestimate given it includes a few days in July). Given an average of 127/week over the last 4 weeks, there likely there will be another 127 in the last week. Therefore, 508+127: 635. Although this is likely an overestimate, still considerably greater than 550. 

As of July 30, 2025, the precise total number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States specifically in the month of July is not centrally reported in aggregate. However, the following facts from authoritative sources allow for a well-supported estimate:

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports 3,141,850 acres burned year-to-date (January 1–July 30, 2025).

By July 7, 2025, over 2 million acres had burned year-to-date. This means that between July 7 and July 30, the additional area burned is approximately 1.14 million acres (3.14 million - 2 million).

The trend reported by NIFC indicates that acres burned in 2025 remained below the 10-year average for the same time period, despite fire counts trending higher.

Some major wildfire incidents in July 2025 include:

The Dragon Bravo Fire near the Grand Canyon: over 71,000 acres (Arizona).

The Madre Fire in California: 80,786 acres from July 2–26.

The Cram Fire in Oregon: 95,736 acres from July 13–26.

Multiple additional July fires across states like Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Washington, and Alaska contributed with thousands to tens of thousands of acres each.

Estimate:

Given the difference in NIFC's year-to-date acreage from early July to the end of July, approximately 1.1 to 1.2 million acres of U.S. land have burned in the month of July 2025 alone. This estimate is based on the official year-to-date figures and the outbreak of significant multi-state fires during July.

No source provides a single, finalized July-only total, so this estimate embeds the best available numbers and methods from federal wildfire reporting.

The chances that Iran and the US will announce a nuclear deal before August 1, 2025, are very low—verging on negligible—according to the most recent diplomatic and expert analysis.

Here’s why:

Recent Developments: As of mid-to-late July 2025, both sides have not announced a deal, and time is almost out. The US, its European allies, and Iran had set an “August deadline” for an agreement, but deep disagreements persist, especially over uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and guarantees for compliance by both sides.

Breakdown and Mistrust: Multiple rounds of talks in spring and early summer 2025 failed to yield results. After a two-month window for diplomacy closed in June, Israel and the US conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This dramatically damaged trust and made Iranian negotiators, who already doubted US intentions, even more skeptical of the process.

Current Stalemate: Since the strikes, Iran has signaled engagement with Europeans and expressed—at least publicly—openness to more talks. Yet fundamental disagreements remain, such as Iran’s insistence on retaining enrichment rights and meaningful sanctions relief, while the US has demanded dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Both sides have threatened severe consequences for failure to reach a deal and appear to be focusing more on blame than on bridging gaps.

Expert Views and Forward-Looking Indicators: Think tanks and experts agree that the last-minute push is extremely unlikely to succeed. The threat of renewed or snapback UN sanctions and the possibility of further military action now loom large over the diplomatic process, and both sides’ “red lines” appear firmly entrenched. Recent reporting suggests talks are ongoing but no breakthrough is close.

In summary, while both Iran and the US have a stated interest in diplomacy and are still technically at the negotiating table, the chances of announcing a new nuclear deal before August 1, 2025, are extremely slim—barring an unexpected and dramatic compromise in the next 24 hours

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-allies-agree-august-deadline-iran-nuclear-deal-axios-reports-2025-07-15/

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-global-implications-of-the-us-strikes-on-iran/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/13/iran-nuclear-negotiations-pezeshkian-araghchi/

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10292/