Going down, I was being way too optimistic. "Plans for a UN-mandated international stabilisation force charged with disarming Hamas inside Gaza face growing opposition after the United Arab Emirates said it would not participate because it did not yet see a clear legal framework for the force.... Arab states including Qatar are also concerned that this mandate is too expansive"
-0.002359
Relative Brier Score
225
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 26 | 256 | 225 | 871 |
| Comments | 5 | 15 | 166 | 163 | 226 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 21 | 52 | 42 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 89 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-14%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2025 to May 12, 2026
99%
(+14%)
No
Nov 12, 2025 to May 12, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
65%
(+5%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
15%
(-5%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
The numbers from 2024 showed that there is a constant rate of approx 1000 per year, however I think that the current situation happening in US with Trump affecting science funding, will have an impact, therefore I am not expecting more than 5000 between 2026-2030.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rate either decreases or increases abruptly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
19
5%
18
25%
17
69%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
I think the timeline is too short. From the 5 missing countries I believe Japan and South Korean might be the ones to do it sooner, Italy might also do it. For Germany and specially the USA I think this might be more complicated.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
All G20 countries recognise Palestina.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-10%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
85%
(+10%)
No
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Israel doesn’t respect the ceasefire. “Fidan complained that “Israel is regularly violating the ceasefire and preventing the delivery of humanitarian aid at the required level. We have now reached an extremely critical stage.”
Files
Why might you be wrong?
UN resolution helps to stabilise Gaza.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Being more realistic given the time frame, and how the "peace process" in Gaza is going and the fact that G20 countries have had already a couple of years to recognise the State of Palestine .
"The fact that Israel’s occupation and colonial expansion has continued unpunished by international authorities since 1967 is proof enough that they will never be held to the fire they started."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/08/where-is-gaza-peace-process-going
Why might you be wrong?
N/A