Confirmed previous forecast
0.984552
Relative Brier Score
886
Forecasts
89
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 20 | 255 | 240 | 886 |
| Comments | 2 | 17 | 178 | 175 | 238 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 19 | 48 | 42 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 89 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-50%)
Yes
95%
(+50%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+98%)
Less than 30 days
1%
(+1%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(-99%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
At this point of time before the question closes, the most likely is the last bin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Quite unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No news around.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is still at war with Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A