Time running lower
0.060585
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 3 | 49 | 38 | 83 |
| Comments | 1 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 41 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(-2%)
Yes
84%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China might become more concerned about US blockade plans
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
China has no interest in causing a conflict.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
America will want to bring a conflict forward before its window of opportunity closes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-2%)
Yes
82%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time dropping and China unlikely to want to label a construction "military" - if construction starts, it might have another label, and then usage change later.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trade blockades (whether official or state-sponsored piracy) between Africa and China, or the Middle East and China, might force China to provide military escorts to trade convoys.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2025 02:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 21, 2025 to Apr 21, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 21, 2025 to Apr 21, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
China doesn't need to invade Taiwan - it just needs the 2050 plan to mature and for Taiwanese to watch the American empire implode and demand too much of Taiwan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Americans could get quislings to declare independence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(-15%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
15%
(-10%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
58%
(+18%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
27%
(+7%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
There is a difference between the actual threat, and the reported threat, because of the incentive of reportiing an increased perceived threat. The industry is pushing for war preparations, or actual war, as a means of economic recovery, so the threat will be reported as much higher than it actually is.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The threat might be reported accurately, and therefore much lower than my prediction here.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Getting closer. China is more likely to get access to a base than have one exclusively.
Why might you be wrong?
An African country may feel so threatened by an increasingly aggressive west it feels a Chinese base, however small, provides a measure of security.