Dave-Bath

Dave Bath
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New Badge
Dave-Bath
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

China, while needing access to bases, is more likely to visit existing ones rather than build them from scratch

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Why might you be wrong?

The increasing need for protection from rising aggression worldwide by the USA may require countries to ask for Chinese loans for bases that China might access, but China might see a need to have something more than mere access in order to guarantee enough capacity is available for long enough to combat piracy by American-led forces and be worth the investment.

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New Prediction
Dave-Bath
made their 17th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 19, 2026 12:13AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 19, 2025 to Jun 19, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Dec 19, 2025 to Jun 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

China has no interest in a military confrontation over Taiwan, destroying the manufacturing capacity of its major trading partner, and ruining the plans of a peaceful takeover by 2050 (led, presumably, by an increasing number of cross-strait babies from office romances in special economic zones and similar initiatives.

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Why might you be wrong?

America wants an excuse for a limited conflict that does not escalate to nuclear war that includes the US homeland (a nuke on Japan and/or Australia as China's final "shot across the bow" is acceptable), because it would allow the opportunity to inflict significant damage on manufacturing, energy generation, and logistics infrastructure in China, while avoiding damage to the US homeland.  Provoking such a conflict, by installing large numbers of US troops, or nuclear capable weapons on Taiwan, (or talk of doing it soon) would force China to take Taiwan pre-emptively to avoid that immediate threat.  A large scale blockade of Venezuela, that threatens wide blockade of trade with South America, might also indicate to China the America's intent to bring forward the conflict, meaning that China may feel it necessary to take more robust action to prepare offshore positions in the Western Pacific region, including Taiwan, before American buildup in the region, including naval blockades aroung the world, makes the conflict more difficult for China.

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New Badge
Dave-Bath
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Getting closer.  China is more likely to get access to a base than have one exclusively.

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Why might you be wrong?

An African country may feel so threatened by an increasingly aggressive west it feels a Chinese base, however small, provides a measure of security. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time running lower

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Why might you be wrong?

China might become more concerned about US blockade plans

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New Badge
Dave-Bath
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Dave-Bath
made their 16th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 19, 2025 11:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

China has no interest in causing a conflict.

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Why might you be wrong?

America will want to bring a conflict forward before its window of opportunity closes.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time dropping and China unlikely to want to label a construction "military" - if construction starts, it might have another label, and then usage change later.

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Why might you be wrong?
Trade blockades (whether official or state-sponsored piracy) between Africa and China, or the Middle East and China, might force China to provide military escorts to trade convoys.
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New Badge
Dave-Bath
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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