China has no interest in a military confrontation over Taiwan, destroying the manufacturing capacity of its major trading partner, and ruining the plans of a peaceful takeover by 2050 (led, presumably, by an increasing number of cross-strait babies from office romances in special economic zones and similar initiatives.
0.137901
Relative Brier Score
45
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
America wants an excuse for a limited conflict that does not escalate to nuclear war that includes the US homeland (a nuke on Japan and/or Australia as China's final "shot across the bow" is acceptable), because it would allow the opportunity to inflict significant damage on manufacturing, energy generation, and logistics infrastructure in China, while avoiding damage to the US homeland. Provoking such a conflict, by installing large numbers of US troops, or nuclear capable weapons on Taiwan, (or talk of doing it soon) would force China to take Taiwan pre-emptively to avoid that immediate threat. A large scale blockade of Venezuela, that threatens wide blockade of trade with South America, might also indicate to China the America's intent to bring forward the conflict, meaning that China may feel it necessary to take more robust action to prepare offshore positions in the Western Pacific region, including Taiwan, before American buildup in the region, including naval blockades aroung the world, makes the conflict more difficult for China.
Why do you think you're right?
Getting closer. China is more likely to get access to a base than have one exclusively.
Why might you be wrong?
An African country may feel so threatened by an increasingly aggressive west it feels a Chinese base, however small, provides a measure of security.
Why do you think you're right?
Time running lower
Why might you be wrong?
China might become more concerned about US blockade plans
Why do you think you're right?
China has no interest in causing a conflict.
Why might you be wrong?
America will want to bring a conflict forward before its window of opportunity closes.
Why do you think you're right?
Time dropping and China unlikely to want to label a construction "military" - if construction starts, it might have another label, and then usage change later.
Why do you think you're right?
China, while needing access to bases, is more likely to visit existing ones rather than build them from scratch
Why might you be wrong?
The increasing need for protection from rising aggression worldwide by the USA may require countries to ask for Chinese loans for bases that China might access, but China might see a need to have something more than mere access in order to guarantee enough capacity is available for long enough to combat piracy by American-led forces and be worth the investment.