Elia-B

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All Time Stats

0.092853

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
A potential solution to the current conflict could include the EU purchasing Russian gas on a X years contract as a means to stimulate the Russian economy in the coming years through reconstruction.
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Why might you be wrong?
More than likely going to be wrong, however depending on the winter months and how the conflict will continue, it might happen, especially if Hungary and Slovakia continue to purse a policy of rapprochement with Russia
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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I believe there is a strong chance they would, however, it’s highly unlikely that a prolonged ceasefire could occur within the next two months. I could see this coming to perhaps be used as peacekeeping forces to deliver humanitarian aid, or patrol the front lines to ensure the continuation of the “peace”.
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Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps trump will manage to convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire, but I strongly doubt it without major concessions both the EU and Ukraine would disagree to.
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