80th
Accuracy Rank

Elmer

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Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 17 17 17
Comments 0 0 16 16 16
Questions Forecasted 0 0 7 7 7
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
Elmer
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jul 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Elmer
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Yes
100% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Prior reasons listed + proximity to end date of question

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same reasons as before

Files
New Prediction
Elmer
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-3%)
Yes
100% (+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Gas prices have remained low with no spikes

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same reasons as prior

Files
New Prediction
Elmer
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (-7%)
Yes
97% (+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Seems less likely with current trends about 1/3rd way through the month

Files
Why might you be wrong?

External event causing prices to skyrocket

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Previous rationale + ongoing concerns with tariffs

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same reasons as last time

Files
New Badge
Elmer
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Elmer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Yes
99% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Length of time needed for talks on top of recent events (and low probability of talks with intended outcome)

Files
Why might you be wrong?

External event or information I'm not privy to influencing a change

Files
New Badge
Elmer
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jun 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Elmer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-3%)
Yes
100% (+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Timeline is now tomorrow with specifications in question and it still needs to go to the House even if it gets votes late this evening and into the morning.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same reasons as before.

Files
New Prediction
Elmer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Yes
90% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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