Confirmed previous forecast
-0.154822
Relative Brier Score
98
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
2%
(-78%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
98%
(+78%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
@ctsats makes a very compelling argument for CDC stats currently undercounting substantially, and schools just started
Files
Why might you be wrong?
CDC stats turn out to be accurate and the deceleration I cited last week was correct
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Time elapsed update
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time elapsed update
Files
Why do you think you're right?
As of September 9, 1454 cases, 5 or less cases per week over the last two weeks and trending down
Why might you be wrong?
It will be close, a single outbreak could tip total over 1500