Hinterhunter

Is South Korea in Africa?

Time running out, O-RAN was a Biden initiative that may not have steam in the Trump era

If Russia invades either Estonia or Latvia they will invade the other. With what troops or equipment though.

Lithuania has a slightly higher chance as it borders Kaliningrad and Belorussia, which is upgrading its security pact with Russia from vassal to vassal premium:

https://neuters.de/world/europe/russia-belarus-sign-landmark-security-pact-russian-news-agency-says-2024-12-03/

Even 7% seems to large if one further considers that Kim has to negotiate with the incoming Trump administration and hold his cards tight in the next six months. Idiot move to test before talking.

Upon further reflection, the imposition of martial law and political upheaval in South Korea, with its clear economic and human costs, is a much larger decisive element towards no than all the construction-maintenance evidence/menacing rethoric/distracting moves/russian technological support which clearly can be interpreted in many ways and speaks nothing about the current tactical moment in which Kim would make such a decision.

Russia's "announcement" that it may resume testing  may result in lower probability of a yes resolution even if it ends up being a NK test under russian cover:

1. The resolution criteria don't specify this, but all forecasters have assumed that the test has to occur in NK soil. Plenty of examples of nuclear testing being done far away from one's territory however.

2. If I were Kim and needed to test my nukes, and Putin owed me a few favors, one of my asks would be a test in Siberia.

3. The existance of this question as it is posed, and chinese and SK reluctance, are powerful incentives to not conduct another test in NK soil. Nobody needs the headlines, even if Kim wants the data.

Raising slightly because russians may be considering resuming tests themselves:

Senior Russian diplomat: Russia faces question of resuming nuclear tests

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20241201_05/

At the same time, with martial law being declared in South Korea and internal political upheaval there, NK will most likely stay silent and enjoy the show, lest forces coallesce against them.

Doesn’t seem reasonable to be below 25% yes with a situation so complicated. That said, their alliance with HTS remains solid and SDF is expanding its territory because “The deployment of our forces to these villages is in response to the urgent pleas and appeals of the local populace, following the increasing potential risks that ISIS will exploit the events in the west of the country. “ https://sdf-press.com/en/2024/12/statement-on-the-recent-situations-in-villages-east-of-deir-ezzor/

Past few months have been quiet, perhaps proving my theory of a quiet end of year. Holding steady.

data already in