Confirmed previous forecast
0.156847
Relative Brier Score
366
Forecasts
43
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 3 | 323 | 268 | 1614 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 125 | 114 | 737 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 67 | 53 | 225 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 20 | 293 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Export control on models is extremely unlikely - the definition of frontier is hazy, and so is the justification for the implementation of such controls. The US will be content to not have completely rescinded the AI Diffusion rule, thereby being able to wield it in the extreme case that controlling AI weights or related infra becomes a priority.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Enough priority reached by increasing levels of implementation and capabilities.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+2%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
rising moldova as discontent continues
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+50%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
0%
(-50%)
No
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Madagascar
Files
Why might you be wrong?
may be reversed?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-7%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+7%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Almost certainly not given time and declarations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still some minimal chance end of year?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(+22%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(-1%)
30 days
1%
(0%)
31-60 days
2%
(-2%)
61-90 days
6%
(-19%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
little time left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
end of year changes in peace dynamics?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files