Io-Aurelius

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.000145
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.181382
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000098
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000432
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.155544
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? -0.154807
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? -0.07649
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.065402
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.008735
Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025) -0.241532
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.00008
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.006312
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.012041
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? -0.000033
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.000138
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.000117
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? -0.000144
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.000896
Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024) 0.077953
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.221756
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