RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	7%	3%	+5%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	90%	96%	-6%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	6%	+0%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	0%	+0%	-2%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	100%	+0%	+2%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	98%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	7%	-2%	+0%
No	95%	93%	+2%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:20PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	10%	+5%	-5%
No	85%	90%	-5%	+5%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:20PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	8%	4%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	92%	96%	-4%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

JJMLP

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