Forecasted Questions
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 04:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 04:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 45% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 50% | 55% | -5% | +0% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 42% | +8% | -3% |
| No | 50% | 58% | -8% | +3% |
Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 04:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 95% | -5% | +0% |
How much snowfall will Washington, DC receive in February 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Mar 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2 | 25% | 33% | -8% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2 but less than 5 | 35% | 41% | -6% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 5 but less than 8 | 25% | 16% | +9% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 8 | 15% | 10% | +5% | +0% |
How many incidents of piracy and armed robbery will be reported in the IMO GSIS database for February 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Mar 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 05:04PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 05:04PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 8 | 5% | 8% | -3% | -6% |
| Between 8 and 11, inclusive | 25% | 23% | +2% | -2% |
| Between 12 and 15, inclusive | 50% | 47% | +3% | +7% |
| Between 16 and 19, inclusive | 20% | 18% | +2% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 20 | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
Will Denis Sassour Nguesso win the 2026 Presidential election in the Republic of the Congo?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Mar 16, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Mar 16, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 05:05PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Feb 01, 2026 05:05PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 95% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 5% | 5% | +0% | +1% |