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JJMLP

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Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2025 04:40PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	16%	-6%	-27%
No	90%	84%	+6%	+27%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:16PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2027	Feb 23, 2026	5%	-3%	+1%
No	98%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2027	Feb 23, 2026	95%	+3%	-1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	18%	+12%	+0%
No	70%	82%	-12%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	3%	+3%	+0%
No	94%	97%	-3%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	7%	3%	+4%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	90%	96%	-6%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%