Forecasted Questions
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 10% | 21% | -11% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 40% | 42% | -2% | +3% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 15% | 14% | +1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 25% | 9% | +16% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 10% | 13% | -3% | -3% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 09:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 10% | -6% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 90% | +6% | +0% |
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 09:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 46% | +4% | -2% |
| No | 50% | 54% | -4% | +2% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:24PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 09:24PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 75% | 68% | +7% | +0% |
| 30 days | 12% | 6% | +6% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 8% | 16% | -8% | -1% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 09:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 09:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 50% | 51% | -1% | +1% |
| €30 billion or more | 50% | 43% | +7% | -1% |