Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 188 | 0 | 1364 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 99 | 0 | 271 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 186 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 06:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than or equal to 4,499
39%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
49%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
6%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
Recent years average 1090 per year, so baseline is 5450 (h/t @thsavage). But 2025 funding cuts are unprecedented. Students already enrolled will mostly complete, but new enrollments are heavily affected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pipeline protection might be stronger than expected. Funding could stabilize or improve post-2028.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(+2%)
Less than $350 million
15%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
The US follows the same pattern as Europe with stronger Q4 but overall weak year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(-5%)
Less than $350 million
55%
(+3%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
7%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
November's strong performance ($52.2M globally) confirms Q4 seasonal patterns exist, but 2025 still tracks significantly below 2024 overall. My forecast assumes 2026 sees modest recovery as conditions stabilize, but the two-year combined total barely exceeds what 2024 achieved alone.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
November's strength could signal the start of a faster recovery than I'm projecting.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(-20%)
Yes
30%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moving closer to crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files