Appreciate @ctsats for noticing the data revisions! https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/206277
0.210274
Relative Brier Score
320
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 208 | 191 | 1338 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 109 | 104 | 258 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 57 | 46 | 185 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(+6%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
78%
Less than $1 billion
18%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
4%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
I let Claude analyze the numbers (see attached images it made).
Global seed funding is down 56% in 2025 YTD with only 14 rounds versus 39 in all of 2024. The decline is consistent across regions. Assuming market stabilization and only a modest recovery in 2026, the two-year combined total roughly matches what 2024 achieved alone.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
2026 could see a major rebound. The dramatic downturn makes me wonder if the seed rounds are being undercounted.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
Less than $350 million
16%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
2%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
0%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0%
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
I let Claude analyze the numbers (see attached images it made).
The US is tracking 56% below 2024 levels through October, with only 6 seed rounds compared to 15 in all of 2024. Even assuming some stabilization or recovery in 2026, the two-year total comes in significantly below a single year of 2024.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Q4 2025 could be stronger than the current trend suggests, or 2026 could see a major rebound. The dramatic downturn makes me wonder if the seed rounds are being undercounted?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Less than $350 million
52%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
5%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
1%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
0%
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
I let Claude analyze the numbers (see attached images it made).
2025 is tracking 54% below 2024 with dramatically fewer seed rounds (8 YTD vs 22 in all of 2024). Even with a modest recovery in 2026, the two-year combined total stays well below what 2024 achieved alone.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Q4 2025 could be much stronger than the current trend suggests, or 2026 could see a major rebound. The dramatic downturn makes me wonder if the seed rounds are being undercounted?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Gemini's research only found 4 multilateral security agreements meeting the strict criteria over 25 years (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1130N112rZHUH3Pn5h4XS52VGcOgi9socyIg3eFFRsAQ/edit), giving an 10-11% base rate for the next 8 months. I'm at 15% because the Egypt-Jordan-Iraq trilateral has held multiple summits and explicitly links their security, so formalizing into a signed MOU seems feasible (h/t @geoffodlum).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Egypt's Arab NATO proposal was rejected at September's Doha summit even right after Israel struck Qatar (h/t @o-maverick), an example that even catalyzing events don't always produce agreements. I might be too low if the Egypt-Jordan-Iraq trilateral moves much faster than expected.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
100%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt’s annual headline urban inflation rate (“Headline (y/y)”) has been below 20% since February. EGX 30 isn't looking concerning either.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
X
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Following crowd
Why might you be wrong?
x