Confirmed previous forecast
1.680601
Relative Brier Score
49
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 250
5%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
28%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
43%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don't see this happening in the current environment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be something going on behind the scenes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This seems highly unlikely at this point in time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be some accident that leads to conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems highly unlikely for this to trend higher given the current policies.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a change in the measurement approach.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 27, 2025 02:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Jul 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Gas prices in DC are around $3.6 now and we have much higher than other places.
Why might you be wrong?
There could be some measurement issue that puts the prices higher that I would expect.