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147th
Accuracy Rank

Mauricio_B

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0.902063

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 33 1 294
Comments 0 0 2 0 86
Questions Forecasted 0 0 21 1 156
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 0 57
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Mauricio_B
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My rationale is based on the social unrest after the elections.

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no indications about this
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No more time to reach to reach this number.
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No news about it.
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No news about this agreement.
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This week, two major events related to Haiti have influenced the likelihood of President Henry remaining in office. Firstly, a delegation from Haiti visited Nairobi on a fact-finding mission to assess the readiness of Kenyan police for deployment to Haiti. This indicates a significant level of international cooperation and support, suggesting an 99% likelihood that Henry will continue as president. However, the second event, which introduces a 1% uncertainty, involves a request from the US Congress' Haiti Caucus to the Biden administration, urging them to withdraw support for President Henry. This request could potentially impact his position and international backing.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-12-14-haiti-police-chief-arrives-in-nairobi-ahead-of-kenyas-deployment/

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-41179-haiti-usa-house-democrats-ask-the-biden-administration-to-backtrack-in-haiti.html


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Comment deleted on Dec 14, 2023 04:38PM UTC

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Given that the holiday season for major airlines has already begun with Thanksgiving, it is unlikely that any significant announcements will be made before the end of the year.
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New Prediction

According to recent updates, it appears that the elections are now expected to take place in 2025.

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