146th
Accuracy Rank

Mauricio_B

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5.576178

Relative Brier Score

96

Forecasts

28

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 19 1 294
Comments 0 0 0 0 239
Questions Forecasted 0 0 15 1 156
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 4 0 57
 Definitions
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Mauricio_B
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

My rationale is based on the social unrest after the elections.

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New Prediction
no indications about this
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New Prediction
No more time to reach to reach this number.
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No news about it.
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No news about this agreement.
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New Prediction

This week, two major events related to Haiti have influenced the likelihood of President Henry remaining in office. Firstly, a delegation from Haiti visited Nairobi on a fact-finding mission to assess the readiness of Kenyan police for deployment to Haiti. This indicates a significant level of international cooperation and support, suggesting an 99% likelihood that Henry will continue as president. However, the second event, which introduces a 1% uncertainty, involves a request from the US Congress' Haiti Caucus to the Biden administration, urging them to withdraw support for President Henry. This request could potentially impact his position and international backing.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-12-14-haiti-police-chief-arrives-in-nairobi-ahead-of-kenyas-deployment/

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-41179-haiti-usa-house-democrats-ask-the-biden-administration-to-backtrack-in-haiti.html


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New Prediction

Comment deleted on Dec 14, 2023 04:38PM UTC

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New Prediction

Given that the holiday season for major airlines has already begun with Thanksgiving, it is unlikely that any significant announcements will be made before the end of the year.
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New Prediction

According to recent updates, it appears that the elections are now expected to take place in 2025.

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