Let's say a 0,3% probability of dying within the next 1½ months reasonable for a 71 years old man, plus some add on to account for disabilities or removal from office.
-0.00009
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Files
Let's say a 0,1% probability of dying within the next ½ months reasonable for a 71 years old man, plus some add on to account for disabilities or removal from office.