RAND Forecasting Initiative

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	72%	67%	+5%	-1%
30 days	8%	6%	+2%	+0%
31-60 days	10%	6%	+4%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	6%	16%	-10%	+1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	9%	6%	+3%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	7%	+9%	+0%
No	84%	93%	-9%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	70%	42%	+28%	+3%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	12%	35%	-23%	+0%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	9%	15%	-6%	-2%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	9%	5%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to $650 million	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	71%	47%	+24%	+0%
No	29%	53%	-24%	+0%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	57%	+8%	-1%
No	35%	43%	-8%	+1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

MikeAp

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