Confirmed previous forecast
-0.077177
Relative Brier Score
85
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 11 | 86 | 85 | 198 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 22 | 21 | 50 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 11 | 22 | 22 | 51 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes
84%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given the intensely risk-averse culture of the FDA, even in its current incarnation, this seems unlikely. The only application where some degree of LLM integration might be approved would be, maybe, a "therapist in a box." Even then, there would be major hurdles.
Due to the low bar set by the resolution criteria, I am keeping my guess at 1%. Given the resolution's very short timeline, this might be too high.
Why might you be wrong?
Pre-submissions, like Contrast Llama, exist, but the road to FDA approval is long and rocky. I see no special incentives to push LLM-based devices through...