MikeAp

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Forecasts 0 9 87 9 208
Comments 0 2 22 2 53
Questions Forecasted 0 9 24 9 54
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 3
 Definitions


New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The status quo has powerful inertia. Argentina has not formally revoked its 2010 recognition, and formal revocations are extremely rare in diplomatic practice. Even when governments undergo dramatic ideological shifts, they typically allow prior recognitions to exist in a kind of limbo instead of formal withdrawal. Milei's government has already achieved its signaling goals through UN votes, rhetoric, and the planned Jerusalem embassy move; a formal revocation adds little value while adding diplomatic friction.

The remaining five non-recognizers have been explicit and consistent: Germany and the U.S. cite the need for negotiated solutions, Japan explicitly bypassed recognition in September 2025, and Italy has specific unmet conditions. There’s no foreseeable catalyst visible that would move any of these governments within the tight timeline.

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Why might you be wrong?

Even an unforeseen catalyst would likely not change the situation in less than 3 weeks. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It is extremely unlikely that any national government will genuinely achieve AGI. Might a country like North Korea declare it with no real evidence?

Absolutely. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Many of the forecasters here, myself included, could be underestimating the desire for rogue nations to appear powerful. 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
MikeAp
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
70% (0%)
Less than $350 million
12% (0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
9% (0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
9% (0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
MikeAp
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
9% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
1% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
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MikeAp
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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MikeAp
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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