253rd
Accuracy Rank

Newton

Isaac Newton
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Forecasted Questions

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 19%
No 100% 81%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. 0% 0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion 100% 1%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion 0% 5%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion 0% 51%
€30 billion or more 0% 43%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 62% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% 0% 4%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% 100% 96%
More than or equal to 74% 0% 0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 10%
No 100% 90%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 36%
No 100% 64%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 47%
No 100% 53%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 29%
No 100% 71%
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