Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
3 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 64% | -64% | +1% |
| No | 100% | 36% | +64% | -1% |
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
3 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 46% | -46% | -6% |
| No | 100% | 54% | +46% | +6% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
3 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 10% | -10% | -2% |
| No | 100% | 90% | +10% | +2% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
2 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -5% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +5% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
2 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 10% | -10% | -4% |
| No | 100% | 90% | +10% | +4% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
2 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 7% | -7% | +1% |
| No | 100% | 93% | +7% | -1% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
2 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 55% | -55% | -24% |
| No | 100% | 45% | +55% | +24% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
1 Forecast
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:58PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 20% | -20% | -6% |
| No | 100% | 80% | +20% | +6% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
1 Forecast
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 06, 2025 06:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 0% | 79% | -79% | -2% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 0% | 55% | -55% | +13% |