253rd
Accuracy Rank

Newton

Isaac Newton
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Forecasted Questions

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 64%
No 100% 36%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 46%
No 100% 54%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 10%
No 100% 90%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 10%
No 100% 90%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 7%
No 100% 93%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 55%
No 100% 45%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:58PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 20%
No 100% 80%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2025 06:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
U.S. Entity 0% 79%
Non-U.S. Entity 0% 55%
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