Confirmed previous forecast
-0.005593
Relative Brier Score
279
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 27 | 336 | 279 | 1472 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 78 | 70 | 94 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 65 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
55%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely in the given timeframe.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps something will be fast-tracked or is already in the works behind the scenes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2025 to May 6, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 6, 2025 to May 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files